View Full Version : To those who think AN will not make it.


Motori
04-23-2009, 05:54 AM
I have an Iranian friend who is not religious at all but he support the regime very dearly. He was in Iran during the last presidential selection this is a story that he told me upon return to US:

I was sitting in a restaurant having some chelo kabab when I saw 6 full size buses parked in front of the joint and some hezbollahis started to guide and disembark rural looking people from the vehicles. Over 200 people started to walk toward the restaurant when the owner rushed toward them and shouted at rishoo guys saying "I can't serve 200 people at the same time, so please leave". I spoke to one of the passengers inquiring what is this gathering about?", "We are going to vote" he simply replied with a high pitch voice and a big grin.
So if you think the days of "a chelo kabab for a vote" is over then you are mistaking.
I don't know on what kind of a platform AN is running this time around but I can assure you this 2 headed Snake is capable of various tricks and you will never know what type of a rabbit he will pull out of the hat this time.
Here is a rather long but good article about him from AsiaTimes:




Ahmadinejad really is the man in charge
By Shahir Shahidsaless

It is increasingly becoming an accepted fact among political analysts and politicians in the West that Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad should not be taken seriously, and that the real power in Iran rests in the hands of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

In an interview with NPR radio, former US national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski stated: "President Ahmadinejad sounds very impressive, but he's not really the president of Iran ... He neither commands the Iranian armed forces nor is in charge of the Iranian foreign policy even. The country is ruled by higher echelons culminating in the supreme leader."

According to the report entitled "Restoring the Balance", researched and written jointly by two influential institutions - the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and the Brookings Institution - which is apparently designed to provide a detailed roadmap for US President Barack Obama's top policymakers, “No movement on the core issues of interest to the United States will be possible without the approval of Iran's supreme leader.”

Under Iran's constitution, the role of the supreme leader is clearly defined over and above all three governmental branches. However, the law does not necessarily mean much in Iran and as the evidence below suggests, Ahmadinejad holds the real power in Iran, not Khamenei.

Ahmadinejad crushes rivals
During the June 2005 presidential election in Iran, a man relatively unknown to the public, let alone the international community, Ahmadinejad, the son of a blacksmith, rose to power.

Eight days before the 2005 elections in Iran, Baztab, the subsequently-banned website that was related to ex-Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander Mohsen Rezaii, published a news item that was lost among the excitement and clamor of those days. It read: "A number of commanders of a military force are involved in vast activities in favor of one of the candidates."

The Baztab report added: "These commanders have gathered high-ranking officers of the Basij [a volunteer-based paramilitary force] and explicitly ordered them to convey the message to their personnel that Basij should support that specific candidate."

A consideration of what transpired later made it clear that candidate was none other than Ahmadinejad.

During the election, another unofficial news item revealed shocking details of a very complicated operation called "Basir", designed and conducted by the IRGC to mobilize Basiji families and their relatives to vote for Ahmadinejad. The plan was implicitly admitted by then deputy commander of the IRGC, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr.

Prior to the 2005 election, Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani - two-time president, ex-chairman of Iran's parliament and one of the most powerful ayatollahs in Iran - was so influential, alongside Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini and Mehdi Karrubi, that it was unimaginable to think that anyone other than Khamenei could challenge their power.

One day after the first round of the election, Karrubi said: "Up until 7 o'clock this morning, I was on top. Suddenly, in an unusual jump, one of the gentlemen gained one million votes. These problems are caused by a very obscure network that even runs the show in the Guardian Council." This "obscure network", as announced later by Karrubi in his open letter to Khamenei, included the IRGC, Basij and the security forces.

In a press conference, furious over the events, he yelled: "To those who worked with love [in this election], not those who worked with profits from illegal jetties, smuggling, and the [illegal] sale of sugar and tea, I say that we will resist."

Karrubi was the first official to reveal the existence of the illegal jetties which are heavily controlled by the IRGC. Karrubi's advisor claimed that 60% of total imports went through what he called "invisible jetties". In another instance, an influential reformist and ex-parliament representative, Mohsen Armin, in his resignation letter from parliament (Majlis) warned that about US$12 billion worth of goods was smuggled annually through illegal jetties.

Following his shocking defeat in the election, in an open letter to the Iranian people, Rafsanjani - the other defeated clergy - also stated, "In an unprecedented action, by using billions [of Tomans the Iranian currency] from Baitulmal [term referring to the assets of the Islamic government] ... and government resources in an organized way, some individuals interfered illegally with the elections." He never did mention any names.

Ahmadinejad's control of oil and its proceeds
While Khamenei also establishes his power by relying on the most powerful network in the country, referred to as an "obscure network" by Karrubi, it is Ahmadinejad who has firm and close relations with that network. Why? Because Ahmadinejad is the man who can feed the network and facilitate its activities and operations inside and outside of Iran by having a strong handle on the large sums of money from oil revenues.

A confidential report prepared by Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi, the inspector general, to the Majlis regarding the illegal withdrawals from the foreign currency reserves by Ahmadinejad's administration sparked a full-blown fight between Ahmadinejad and Pour-Mohammadi, a powerful clergy, who was previously released from his duties by Ahmadinejad as the interior minister.

The amount of money withdrawn illegally by Ahmadinejad's administration is not known. However, according to Ayatollah Hassan Rowhani - a reformist and Khamenei's current representative to the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) - it exceeds a mind-boggling $46 billion.

Ali Larijani's ouster from his internationally well-known position is another example of the extent of Ahmadinejad's power in Iran.

Larijani was the secretary of the SNSC and top negotiator of Iran's nuclear issue with the West between 2005 and 2007, and the representative of Khamenei to that council. By law, it is the president that appoints the secretary of the SNSC. However, when Larijani was also appointed as Khamenei's representative in the SNSC, it was assumed that all the policies and negotiations with the so called "Iran Six" group (five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany) were being dictated and controlled by Khamenei.

During the negotiations on Iran's nuclear standoff between Larijani and Javier Solana (the top negotiator for the "Iran Six" group), it gradually became apparent that there were serious differences between Larijani and Ahmadinejad - representing the ultra-hardliners - in dealing with the nuclear issue.

The friction between the two peaked in October 2007 when Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin visited Iran and had a meeting with Khamenei. Following that meeting, Larijani said to the press that Putin "has offered a special proposal" and added that "we are reviewing it now". At the same time, Khamenei's statement - which was the first and last of its kind that "we will think about what you said and about your proposal" was a clear confirmation of the position that Larijani had taken earlier.

It didn't take too long for the world to learn that there was also another man in charge of the Iranian nuclear negotiations with the West, who was largely and naively ignored.

Ahmadinejad's response was harsh and swift. In a widely broadcast statement he said, "There was no nuclear proposal. Rather, he [Putin] had brought the message of friendship and all-out cooperation." This statement - although ignored by the world - was the president's way of warning those inside and outside the country, even the Supreme Leader, not to even think about bypassing him. Larijani resigned almost immediately. This was a clear indication of the power struggle between Ahmadinejad and the ayatollah.

Surprisingly, despite the fact that Ahmadinejad had clearly overruled Khamenei's position regarding Putin's proposal and practically fired his representative, Khamenei chose absolute silence.

Khamenei understands the extent of Ahmadinejad's power, and in order to maintain his own status, has never nor will he ever challenge Ahmadinejad.

Ahmadinejad's is quoted as having said: "He [Khamenei] thinks that I am his president, but I am Imam Zaman's president."

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KC11Ak02.html

Toofan
04-23-2009, 08:48 AM
well ... htey did put up with his bullshit for 4 years, so I wouldnt be surprised if they picked that monkey as their president again.

artavile
04-23-2009, 08:35 PM
Khamenei understands the extent of Ahmadinejad's power, and in order to maintain his own status, has never nor will he ever challenge Ahmadinejad.

Ahmadinejad's is quoted as having said: "He [Khamenei] thinks that I am his president, but I am Imam Zaman's president."

Thanks motori jan, for this good article.

I think this next round of selection will be detrimental to the future of clergy in Iran, notice I did not say future of IR.

I also believe that a huge power struggle is going on within the establishment, clergy vs. sepah. Ever since AN’s selection, IRGC/Sepah slowly but surely gained a lot of additional turf and still continues to hold their grip to control all the security and major revenue generating apparatus of IR, which incidentally finances all their activities. This of course includes all illicit smuggling through many exclusive IRGC controlled ports on Persian Gulf. Smuggled goods include everything under the sun from cars, all the way to Johnny Walker and Cigarettes (some, including myself believe they are also engaged in drug trade).

I believe this particular selection will push Iran in one of the two potential but distinct paths. On the one hand, if clergy prevails, things will be more and less comparable to Khatami’s era. On the other hand, if AN is re-selected, then our country is truly fucked. Iran will become another North Korea, a totalitarian military like state. First thing AN and his sepah buddies will do, is continue replacing mid-high level clergy management with sepah. Akhoonds will still hold important positions like members of parliament and other high level positions but IMO their days will be numbered (in relative terms).
I think Rahbar knows it too and I bet he is scared shitless that one day some “terrorist” might get him or his family.

Rahbar’s sons have exclusive gas (benzin) importing rights!!! That’s billions of $$$$$ a year while high ranking sepah has other exclusive rights.
It really bothers me that us Iranians can’t think of a way to escalate this rivalry between these two group to our advantage. What ever the out come of this selection is, the only thing that we can be sure of is, neither party gives two shits about Iran or its citizens.

Sorry for roodeh derazi, but if some of us Iranians think things can't get any worse, I have some bad news. :hanged2:

Motori
04-23-2009, 10:06 PM
R.T jAn,
No! It was not a roodeh derAzi and actually you raised many serious valid point.
Last August Khamenei accepted the ""resignation"" of Iranian regular Air Foce commander (I forgot his name) who was the last thoroughbred General who had started in Air Force and elevated his status to command a major branch of Iranian Armed Forces.
After they kicked him out guy name Sar Lashkar Shah Safi took over the position. At that time all 3 regular armed forces commanders of Army, Navy and Air Force were of generals with long term IRGC back ground and services. Nowadays IRGC directly controls Sepah, regular Army and the Basij.
When this happened I had no doubt in my mind that IRGC is planing to go for final kill and they will be the next Iranian government.
Today they are well capable of dismissing Khamenei from the position and take over the whole country in a shortest time ever, the reason they refrain from doing so is Khamenei himself, he has been sitting up there for over 20 years and has gain considerable amount of sanctity in which many gullible Iranians really think he is the Emam representing God and the big E.Z (your word :D) to a point that they practically worship him. In case of overtaking It is possible for this group to mobilize and bring a serious challenge to IRGC, so they are just going to wait and ride out present rahbar who is not going to live for ever and is already 78 years old.
But next rahbar or showra yeh rahbar will not be able to enjoy such a privilege in short time and that is when IRGC will make the move and quite possible the take over could end up being total bloodless.
Looking back in history there were 3 different groups (2 of them muslims) who were created for the same exact purpose as IRGC, managed to gain military and financial capabilities and finally decide to overtake the same government which they were created to protect.
Today Khatam ol Anbia Coorporation is generating humongous amount of revenue while IRGC is enjoying over $84 billion cash reserve. Why should they stand second to bunch of akhoonds?

If you can spare some time do a google on "Janissaries" (actually is pronounced Yenicheri meaning new soldiers) and Mamluks of Egypt.

artavile
04-24-2009, 04:37 PM
..Today they are well capable of dismissing Khamenei from the position and take over the whole country in a shortest time ever,

Motori jan, I agree. I believewritting is on the wall should AN get selected again, RAhbar will eventually “develop” some incurable serious disease or have a quick heart attack.

Once he is dead, they will permanently eliminate the functions of Rahbar, GC and Rafsanjan’s Shorae Negahban all together, which are the remaining clergy power houses.

I think akhoonds know this, and are working relentlessly to counter IRCG/sepah final blow. In fact, IMHO, whoever ends up controlling the election process will come out on top. If you guys remember a few months ago, AN and company were trying to bring in “Dok-tor” Kordan specifically for this function, to oversight the Interior ministry which is directly in charge of “election process” and clergy new they got to get rid of his ass if they want to have any chance, hence the fiasco with his education credentials was surfaced. Otherwise there are many more uneducated olaghs like Kordan all over IR, except Kordan’s alliance was/is with sepah not the clergy.
I am sure high ranking akhoonds are spending many restless night trying to come with a strategy to counter sepah’s complete take over of the country.

At the end, who will prevail? Will it be AN or GOH? At least apart from some of the fiery akhoonds, they will keep with status quo but Sepah elements may get Iran involved in more undesired adventures. :chair:


..God and the big E.Z (your word :D)

LOL, at remembering my reference to the big E.Z. :)

Motori
04-24-2009, 09:50 PM
I think akhoonds know this, and are working relentlessly to counter IRCG/sepah final blow.

I am sure high ranking akhoonds are spending many restless night trying to come with a strategy to counter sepah’s complete take over of the country.

but Sepah elements may get Iran involved in more undesired adventures. :chair:

:)
Dear R.T
Top Ayatoilets tried to do it once and failed miserably. Back then (1981?) when Mir Hussein Moosavi was prime minister he presented a proposal to Majlis requesting IRGC to be converted to a Vezaarat (Dept.) so they could bring the Sepah under administration umbrella by appointing a Minister to be in charge. Majlis overwhelmingly approved the proposal and Khomeini didn't express even a hint of objection let alone vetoing it. We were all waiting for emergence of another Vezaarat, but months past and no one ever mentioned any word about that legislation and finally it was forgotten and IRGC remained as independent as before. Only thing came out of this power struggle was, at that time IRGC figured out what Mullas are cooking for them and ever since they've prepared themselves to counter every possible scenario with proper contingency plans.

Shahin
04-25-2009, 09:19 PM
Very interesting, than you for sharing Motori Jan.

What do you guys think about Rezaie becoming a candidate now ??

Shahin
04-25-2009, 09:21 PM
R.T jAn,
When this happened I had no doubt in my mind that IRGC is planing to go for final kill and they will be the next Iranian government.



Interesting. I had a similar conversation with a firend few weeks back and I said, I think the future changes in Iran will include a military government at some point of time. We may see some social freedoms first but then we will see a political take over by Sepah before we see any other changes.

DireStraits
04-26-2009, 01:35 AM
Ahmadinejad's is quoted as having said: "He [Khamenei] thinks that I am his president, but I am Imam Zaman's president."

This is interesting although I don't know where you have heard this from.
I sometimes speculate where AN wants to go with this Imamzaman teori.
He is using it to say If there comes war against Iran he and the sepah will
fight like emamzamans soldier. OR he wants to fight corruption in Iran?
But this sounds like he is saying his leader is not khamenei but he is independent.
He may even diagree with the leader or even throw him out.
Yes This is between Sepah and rohaniat. But does it lead to internal fight
between these two is another question.
You may be suprized but some times I think if I didn't live abroad I might fall
for AN. If US gets the control of oil in Iraq Iran will have to sell the oil cheap.
AN or whoever runs the government in Iran will have a problem in satisfying
the needs of Iranian people. So people of Iran will be happy if he Iran meddles
in Iraq, work against US and try to build an army to defend Iran.
If I was living in Iran I would be more worried about US attacking Iran than
anything else.
________
Suzuki rg250 specifications (http://www.suzuki-tech.com/wiki/Suzuki_RG250)

Bi-Honar
04-26-2009, 06:45 PM
Gentlemen, as always it's great to read your intelligent and informative posts. I'm obviously not neraly as knowledgeable when it comes to Iranian politics, but I think it would be a major disaster to the Islamic Republic, in its current form, if AN were to get re-elected.

I agree with the notion of a major power struggle brewing. AN has completely aborted mission on the economy and I don't know how much longer he can keep this up. I mean he is no bigger man than Bush (even literally ;)) and look at how GW destroyed himself and the nation in his second term.

Motori
04-27-2009, 03:07 AM
Very interesting, than you for sharing Motori Jan.

What do you guys think about Rezaie becoming a candidate now ??
Shahin jAn,
As I know Rezaei belongs to "Hezb e Baad", nobody but a fence sitter opportunist.
If he pulls out of the race at the last minute then I will call him a reformist, but if he continues (which I think he will) then it will prove who he is, still a Pasdar in the heart trying to split reformist votes and throttle AN for reselection.